Value betting is a technique based on mathematics, which allows you to defeat the bookmakers in the long run. While the quote, ‘the house always wins’ is pretty common, there’s a way to prove this wrong. How? Using value betting, which gives you an edge over bookmakers.
In value betting, a punter spots an outcome that has a greater winning probability than the odds reflect. In sports events, a value bet appears when the odds are greater than the real chance. By taking these higher prices or odds at value bets, you’re getting an edge over bookmakers. In the long run, value betting is probably the most profitable sports betting strategy. Yes, it may sound hard to understand, so we’ll explain this to you using a simple example:
In sports betting, a value bet is an incorrect price or odds of a result. We refer to it as value betting because betting on such opportunities with incorrect odds is providing you a chance to get ahead of the bookmakers. If you’ll place value bets only, you’ll be generating profit in the long run – that’s a guarantee!
Certain bookmakers aren’t fast enough in getting and implementing new information. Being late means they’re not lowering the odds as quickly as they should be doing.
For example, Daniil Medvedev is playing against Novak Djokovic. While both are incredibly good players, bookmakers think that Medvedev has a 44% chance to be victorious. Thus, the bookmaker offers the odds of 2.10. In the majority of cases, the bookmakers are missing an important piece of information regarding the players (for example, Djokovic being too tired because of a previous long match or having a minor injury. In cases like these, the likelihood of Medvedev winning can increase to 55%. If you’re still able to bet on Medvedev on the odds of 2.10, you have an advantage over the bookmaker.
Such bets are known as value bets. Of course, there will be a lot of times you’ll end up losing some of these bets, but in the long run, this strategy may prove to be very profitable.
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